Realistically, how many years from now can we render the whole Pixar Frozen at home in one hour?

larsmidnatt

nicstt said:

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

The PS3 was initially not allowed to be sold in sensitive territories because it surpassed the power of what was considered a super computer. They of course changed the threshold after it was launched.

icecrmn said:

Judging from what we have today, in 15 more years the line between what is real and what isn't will be impossible to discern with the naked eye.The actors on ones favorite TV show could be Daz Studio characters and you wouldn't be able to see that they are only CGI.

 

...or have we crossed that line already?

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

 

Take the simple process of increasing resolution, that increases render times, simply because of the sheer increase of the number of pixels being rendered over previously; did they render it at 1080 or higher and then reduce the size, or pick the exact portion from the rendered scene they wanted to appear?

i dont know, but I would imagine they would render at IMAX resolutions, I thought they showed this on IMAX but I could be wrong.

 

StratDragon, I hate the quote system too.

I was reading/watching about the 4k resolution, and how they film in larger resolutions already, because it allows to to pick the exact part they want.

We're used to increses like 1, 2, 3, 4... this is linear increasing; it is shown on a graph as a straight line; with Moore's Law, however, we've had expotential increases; this has largely kept pace if one considers not just the speed increses but other factors that determine a processor's performance. This increase, which doubles every time, immediately doesn't show great increases: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128; it does fairly quickly though show amazing increases. We have got to the stage whereby those changes, presuming Moore's Law continues to hold true, are going to be truly massive.

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

Think of what a super computer can do now; fifteen years time, the PS10 wil match it?

 

Stuff like this is more about manpower and skill than raw computer power. Most people to this day couldn't recreate disney classics from the 40's. so, keep that in mind. Even though today's tools are amazing.

nicstt

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

The PS3 was initially not allowed to be sold in sensitive territories because it surpassed the power of what was considered a super computer. They of course changed the threshold after it was launched.

icecrmn said:

Judging from what we have today, in 15 more years the line between what is real and what isn't will be impossible to discern with the naked eye.The actors on ones favorite TV show could be Daz Studio characters and you wouldn't be able to see that they are only CGI.

 

...or have we crossed that line already?

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

 

Take the simple process of increasing resolution, that increases render times, simply because of the sheer increase of the number of pixels being rendered over previously; did they render it at 1080 or higher and then reduce the size, or pick the exact portion from the rendered scene they wanted to appear?

i dont know, but I would imagine they would render at IMAX resolutions, I thought they showed this on IMAX but I could be wrong.

 

StratDragon, I hate the quote system too.

I was reading/watching about the 4k resolution, and how they film in larger resolutions already, because it allows to to pick the exact part they want.

We're used to increses like 1, 2, 3, 4... this is linear increasing; it is shown on a graph as a straight line; with Moore's Law, however, we've had expotential increases; this has largely kept pace if one considers not just the speed increses but other factors that determine a processor's performance. This increase, which doubles every time, immediately doesn't show great increases: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128; it does fairly quickly though show amazing increases. We have got to the stage whereby those changes, presuming Moore's Law continues to hold true, are going to be truly massive.

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

Think of what a super computer can do now; fifteen years time, the PS10 wil match it?

 

Stuff like this is more about manpower and skill than raw computer power. Most people to this day couldn't recreate disney classics from the 40's. so, keep that in mind. Even though today's tools are amazing.

The same BBC program was speculating how the types of jobs will change, and although there have been more jobs created due to technology than lost, it doesn't mean will hold true in the future. One aspect they did consider safer, those that require creativeity. I remember hearing that about the PS3; security can't be allowed to get in the way of profit. :)

larsmidnatt

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

The PS3 was initially not allowed to be sold in sensitive territories because it surpassed the power of what was considered a super computer. They of course changed the threshold after it was launched.

icecrmn said:

Judging from what we have today, in 15 more years the line between what is real and what isn't will be impossible to discern with the naked eye.The actors on ones favorite TV show could be Daz Studio characters and you wouldn't be able to see that they are only CGI.

 

...or have we crossed that line already?

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

 

Take the simple process of increasing resolution, that increases render times, simply because of the sheer increase of the number of pixels being rendered over previously; did they render it at 1080 or higher and then reduce the size, or pick the exact portion from the rendered scene they wanted to appear?

i dont know, but I would imagine they would render at IMAX resolutions, I thought they showed this on IMAX but I could be wrong.

 

StratDragon, I hate the quote system too.

I was reading/watching about the 4k resolution, and how they film in larger resolutions already, because it allows to to pick the exact part they want.

We're used to increses like 1, 2, 3, 4... this is linear increasing; it is shown on a graph as a straight line; with Moore's Law, however, we've had expotential increases; this has largely kept pace if one considers not just the speed increses but other factors that determine a processor's performance. This increase, which doubles every time, immediately doesn't show great increases: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128; it does fairly quickly though show amazing increases. We have got to the stage whereby those changes, presuming Moore's Law continues to hold true, are going to be truly massive.

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

Think of what a super computer can do now; fifteen years time, the PS10 wil match it?

 

Stuff like this is more about manpower and skill than raw computer power. Most people to this day couldn't recreate disney classics from the 40's. so, keep that in mind. Even though today's tools are amazing.

The same BBC program was speculating how the types of jobs will change, and although there have been more jobs created due to technology than lost, it doesn't mean will hold true in the future. One aspect they did consider safer, those that require creativeity. I remember hearing that about the PS3; security can't be allowed to get in the way of profit. :)

was recently reading an article where a AI program became the warehouse manager for I think Hitatchi and it improved performance by 7%. It took into account weather and all sorts of historical data and apparently is kicking butt. Say welcome to our new robot overlords.

Siciliano1969

As stated before regarding GTA 5.  Here is a mod being worked on to bring more accurate realtime lighting to GTA 5.  Gamers already use the PC version that has a movie maker type software to make short movies now.  Please be advised the end of the clip may contain offensive language.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=20&v=kHujc-XgtF4

We know DAZ is already working with Unity via Morph 3D to bring their fantastic digital humans to games, and some of the gaming engines like Unreal Engine have super realistic architectural models you can walk through.  You add the VR goggles due out next year and I would say within 10 years you are going to be able to make and direct your own movies with realistic digital assets.  Imagine being able to do all this while you are present in the scene using your hands to guide and manipulate things.   Figures that have great bending characteristics with low polys, but have 16K displacement maps that map every detail of the skin.  Physically based skin shaders that work with physically accurate lighting and shadows.  Otoy is working with Unreal Engine and possibly Unity to bring unbiased realtime rending to games.  I would image Iray and Nvidia are not asleep on doing the same. 

 

 

nicstt

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

The PS3 was initially not allowed to be sold in sensitive territories because it surpassed the power of what was considered a super computer. They of course changed the threshold after it was launched.

icecrmn said:

Judging from what we have today, in 15 more years the line between what is real and what isn't will be impossible to discern with the naked eye.The actors on ones favorite TV show could be Daz Studio characters and you wouldn't be able to see that they are only CGI.

 

...or have we crossed that line already?

nicstt said:

larsmidnatt said:

nicstt said:

 

Take the simple process of increasing resolution, that increases render times, simply because of the sheer increase of the number of pixels being rendered over previously; did they render it at 1080 or higher and then reduce the size, or pick the exact portion from the rendered scene they wanted to appear?

i dont know, but I would imagine they would render at IMAX resolutions, I thought they showed this on IMAX but I could be wrong.

 

StratDragon, I hate the quote system too.

I was reading/watching about the 4k resolution, and how they film in larger resolutions already, because it allows to to pick the exact part they want.

We're used to increses like 1, 2, 3, 4... this is linear increasing; it is shown on a graph as a straight line; with Moore's Law, however, we've had expotential increases; this has largely kept pace if one considers not just the speed increses but other factors that determine a processor's performance. This increase, which doubles every time, immediately doesn't show great increases: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128; it does fairly quickly though show amazing increases. We have got to the stage whereby those changes, presuming Moore's Law continues to hold true, are going to be truly massive.

A BBC program, Horizon, said that the processing power of a PS4 is greater than a military super computer of fifteen years ago; now that is pretty damn staggering.

Think of what a super computer can do now; fifteen years time, the PS10 wil match it?

 

Stuff like this is more about manpower and skill than raw computer power. Most people to this day couldn't recreate disney classics from the 40's. so, keep that in mind. Even though today's tools are amazing.

The same BBC program was speculating how the types of jobs will change, and although there have been more jobs created due to technology than lost, it doesn't mean will hold true in the future. One aspect they did consider safer, those that require creativeity. I remember hearing that about the PS3; security can't be allowed to get in the way of profit. :)

was recently reading an article where a AI program became the warehouse manager for I think Hitatchi and it improved performance by 7%. It took into account weather and all sorts of historical data and apparently is kicking butt. Say welcome to our new robot overlords.

Can't see em being muth - if any - worse thant the greed-driven monstrosities we have now.

 

Siciliano1969 said:

As stated before regarding GTA 5.  Here is a mod being worked on to bring more accurate realtime lighting to GTA 5.  Gamers already use the PC version that has a movie maker type software to make short movies now.  Please be advised the end of the clip may contain offensive language.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=20&v=kHujc-XgtF4

Cool, definitely watching it then.

IceCrMn

Siciliano1969 said:

 Imagine being able to do all this while you are present in the scene using your hands to guide and manipulate things

one step closer to that holo deck :)

 

larsmidnatt

Siciliano1969 said:

Otoy is working with Unreal Engine and possibly Unity to bring unbiased realtime rending to games.  I would image Iray and Nvidia are not asleep on doing the same. 
 

While originally they were working on an Unreal Plugin, they have shifted to general purpose baking that can be used in more than just one tool. Not to say there won't be an Unreal plugin, but they have stated that baked materials will be beneficial to their ArchViz community as well. We just need to see Otoy get finished with OR3 so we can get our hands on it.

But still even with great assets, there is a difference from nice looking stuff and experiences that people confuse with real life. It's not unachievable to craft environments that look pretty amazing and convincing. But Humans will remain critical of digital representations of humans. Our standards will continue to climb, and in 10 years you will see :)

StratDragon

hey, we landed men on moon with far less computer power than a colecovision. It's the tool in the hand of the artist. 

Siciliano1969

Folks,

This is what I see one day when we custom morph realistic people (skin based on 16K displacement map).   You can have sliders that increase the point counts for more detailed detailing of skin.  Of course you can use the points to move rigged body parts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qeOFibRmoo

 

 

morganzax_be2b63055c

That face rig is incredible!

Siciliano1969

Here is what is called Director Mode in GTA 5.  This is where you can make your own movies using the digital assets of the game.  One can only imagine that digital assests are going to get more and more realistic (Morph3D).  Once we have realtime unbiased rendering and physically based materials as standard in these gaming engines its game over! 

I don't believe I heard any bad language, but there is some violence so please be warned.  This clip shows how a movie is filmed with GTA 5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=387Ufj-U7D4