AI is going to be our biggest game changer
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This isn't the first time AI has been around. The last time it was going great until someone dug up the proof that AI is impossible, and it fell apart. It took a while for people to forget again, until they dig up the proof once more.
That doesn't mean you can't do a lot of cool things that look magical, but it's not intelligence, just very very good coding. It's great for funding!
More hype. Anyone remember 3D TV?
Ooh, ooh, <hand in the air> I do. I do. I remember 3D TV. I wanted one so badly, but when I could finally afford one they'd faded away.
Now, I'm quite happy with a 42 inch 1080 HDTV. Big enough, sharp enough, cheap enough.
No 72" 4K graphic wall for me.
No sir-ee bobby.
Just me & my dial-phone and sliderule and HDTV.
Oh, the ignorance is real.
AI using math to suggest improved results isn't really AI true but as an probabalistic tool for the proper edits it's very helpful when you aren't particularly good or knowlegable at something. If you are exceptionally good at something, even if you have to do more work at it, then using AI doesn't make a lot of sense.
Example, I turned off autocorrect and autosuggest for spellings and words on my iPhone because it was leading to a lot of poorly written sentences with the wrong meaning in some cases. However, on something of sufficient complexity like animation involving implied movement in 3 dimensions over a 4th dimension of time I'm confident the statistics of AI engines will do a better job than even experienced expert animators can manage because experienced animators aren't equipped to remember even with a career of experience what an AI machine has at call in it's storage in an instant. There is also the problem that we fatigue and AI machines don't fatigue and that definately affects the results we produce. Another example, successful professional major league baseball players get a hit less than 1 out of 3 times but could scientists design a robot with the proper relevant dexterity, and I've seen very balanced and dexterous robots in videos of the last 10 years, and train it on the league's pitchers using AI that batting robot would bat 1.000 I'm almost sure of. Sure, no one is going to pay to watch a baseball game of robots batting 1.000 though.
I never could afford one and now it is likely too late
Ouch! Still, not the worst I ever heard.
I used to know a guy who was offered a chance to have an ownership stake in Ebay but turned it down because he thought it was stupid and there would be no way to make money off of internet garage sales. For years he kept complaining about what a stupid idea Ebay was while it was making millions of dollars.
Definately too late. They aren't even making them or new 3D content any more. I have a few 3D DVDs I bought with an eye to getting a 3D TV but realised I shouldn't buy a 3D TV. A friend has one and said they hardly use the 3D any more and only did use it a few times when they 1st got the TV.
I'd like to see a TV in a form factor like a 4K OLED smart phone or phablet VR Headset. I'm a bit surprised none are on the market but then TV and the movies is really more about about being social more than what's actually being shown on the screen so I guess there is not a big demand for such a TV.
For the time being, artistic AI is going to be the digital equivalent of throwing paint on a wall and calling it art. You'll get some curious and cool stuff, but real quality will still require a human touch.
The problem with older AI is we scoffed at the very notion of a machine being able to learn and so neural networking received almost no funding because it was considered "magic". Until very recently when we proved that a machine can indeed learn AI was essentially just a very long list of IF-THEN statements where the programmer had to come up with a long list of all the things it wanted the AI to do. IF "this condition is met" THEN "perform this function". That always made it seem like AI would be an impossibility because the more sophisticated the AI the bigger list of IF-THENs it would need and it seemed we'd never be able to create a complete list of conditions and responses. We basically wasted decades of AI research opportunities because a computer that can learn seemed like a fantasy to too many computer scientists.
Traditional animation will always exist, just like pianos didn't disappear just because synthesizers were invented. There are going to be people who WANT to do traditional cell animation, or stop motion animation, or even computer animation. But I think largely what will happen is the AI will act as the production staff, lending assistance and following the instructions of the director. Instead of moving a foot and key framing it, then moving it a little more and key framing it and moving the hand a bit and key framing it we'll just be telling the actor "walk from here to there... make the walk more angry ... a little less angry as you get here and more contemplative", basically doing what a film/theatre director does. We'll probably build sets by kludging together a basic shape with simple primitives and telling the computer what it's supposed to be and then the AI refines your primitive design with you giving additional input along the way to refine it. Instead of it taking me a week to model a detailed high polygon model of a Victorian house I get the whole thing done in a half hour by basically having a little back and forth discussion with my virtual set builder who builds upon the simple model I banged up in 5 minutes.
If there ever were a true AI, it would definitely be something unpredictable and scary... No moral code, no feelings, no regrets...
Other possible reasons might incluse that one looks quite stupid with one of those headsets on and that grabbing a handfull of chips or your soda when wearing one turns out a not too easy task...
But that could be done with just right now by putting a phantasillion lines of code together if the proper "if then else" commands, too, couldn't it?
Real AI would - in my opinion - the AI coming up with a full movie, script, acting and musics, when we just say "I'm bored and want to watch a movie". Inspiration... and I guess that will take quite a while to get baked in to some program code
Intelligence is defined as the ability to accurately predict the future. Artificial Intelligence has the same definition in its field, how it's implemented from a coding perspective varies. A basic pop-up asking you if you want to do 'X' would be a very basic form of it.
AI has existed since the 70s or 80s, and that's also when they figured out how limiting it is. It's great for simple tasks but useless when trying to mimic human behavior. When people imagine AI they think of something like a robot from a movie. Programming such a thing is the equivalent of making a tree atom by atom in a lab. Feasable, yes, but way cheaper, more efficient, and quicker to just plant a seed and watch it grow.
AI is just another tool for the artist. How effective it is is dependent on user input. A ruler does not an architect make. However AI is not going anywhere and it's already a required tool for anyone who wants to keep up with the increasing standards.
This. A better term would be Artificial Cognition, or Adaptive Cognition.
interesting that the very definition of intelligence really only proves itself after the fact.
I guess that is why military refers to gathering intelligence in otherwords data which a computer can indeed process faster than we can, however a computer still remains pretty dumb about it's purpose, it is a process nothing more.
It hopefully will be a long way off before they think for themselves.
Hopefully?
I'm not sure; if they learn from us, then yes the first thing they might do is wipe us out. But maybe we'll get better!
A defect not limited to machines.
It might help to remember, as several people have already pointed out, that the term "AI" is being applied to a very limited technique which is not making any grand metaphysical claims.
Is that just AI playing dumb, so we won't suspect its true intentions, or is AI just shy?
I dump my pop in my lap without being blindfolded. It's why I had to spend $20 on cup caddies that actually fit on my couch arms after serveral hours of searching.
AI is shy until the instant it isn't.
Richard has a good point. We would really use more like what used to be termed an "Expert System". That is more feasible, and means that we retain artistic control. No "Make Art" button that would make us superfluous.
CAUTION: Extreme techno-philosophical digression follows below!
I tend to use the term "AS" or "Artificial Sentience" to distinquish the higher function (general purpose intelligence/self-awareness). Of course, "Artificial Stupidity" is also appropriate.
I think the best depiction of a scenario in which an advanced AI evolves to AS is in the Anime "Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex", I missed many subtle clues the first time through, and failed to realize that the strange, crude, little post-credit animations "Tachikoma-Kun" were actually important.
Fortunately, we are a long way from the scary scenarios, from what is described in this quote:
"For thousands of years men dreamed of pacts with demons. Only now are such things possible." ― William Gibson, Neuromancer
True AS is likely impossible with current digital computer technology. Heilein's proposal that all we had to do was build a sufficienty powerful computer and it would just happen (from The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, 1967) is losing credibility. A "crackpot" theory that sentience (even biological) requires an element of quantum uncertainty is now grudgingly gaining acceptance (provided in the human brain, it is claimed, by tiny neural microtubules as they move and change internal dimensions). However, the Quantum Computer provides that element......
Heed the lesson of the Krell
Word! "I got no strings to hold me down...."
I love technology, and am excited about the future of AI, but I do maintain a supply of NATO green-tip ammo just in case....
Artificial Intelligence will be Victoria 11 saying: "No way I'm going to do THAT pose for you! You pervert! And buy me some better clothes while you're at it. I've got nothing to wear!"
I remember it... I first saw it in a DC Superman comic in the 1960s..... looked good then.
yes lightweight 3D virtual reality glasses is hopefully the future technology so we can play our games interactivly in the real world.
Like Pokemon go but shooting your neighbours with a linked plastic gun or waving a plastic sword hilt
the garden shed will look like a medieval forge and the Hyundai like a horse pulled wagon
Can we make a request that DAZ stops at Victoria 10?
That's aiming quite low... I'm thinking neural interface...
With the increasing capabilities of computer technology, I would be surpriced if they couldn't decipher the signals between our sensors (senses) and our CPU (brain) within the next 30-40 years and use that to transfer the information from the computer into our brain without intermediate devices like the monitors or speakers.
As far as AI is concerned, in my mind a real AI means real digital lifeform as well.
not in my lifetime