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Wow, Superdog, that's the most intelligent speculation and summary of the DAZ/Carrara situation that I've heard so far.
Nobody knows the answer but DAZ, but your thoughts make the most business sense, IMO. It's all about their overall business strategy going forward, and what markets they want to serve and where they think their greatest return will be in the long term.
This strategy does make a lot of sense - Genesis 3 already works better in Blender as a Collada export than it does in Carrara 8.1. If they can get it to work in a universal format that would also work in Carrara, that solves a lot of issues and opens up a really huge market.
After all, doesn't DUF stand for Daz Universal FileFormat?
Yeah, it's pretty much as basic as you can get for a business strategy. You manufacture a product, and you want it to be usable by as many people as possible so a lot of people will buy it. And like I've been saying for a long time, especially free apps like Blender with huge user bases, could be a major opportunity to increase their content sales dramatically. And if one app has a user base of 1 million, and another has a user base of 10,000, you naturally want to focus on the big user base as opposed to the smaller one.
Yeah, the smaller one represents additional revenue, but when it comes to more bang for your buck, it's pretty much no contest. But anyway, that's been repeated here umpteen times, so once more won't make a difference.
BTW, for what it's worth, I saw some statistics that said that Blender averages about 400,000 downloads every month, and something like 4 million in the last year. Sure, that's not actual users, but it's a lot. Certainly a big market to consider if you sell content.
Actually it say very little, the main Blender forum has around 100.000 members or something like that, sure same problem there, not all users are on the forum, but almost all people that download blender never actually use it, out of the 400.000 downloads every month there or not that many thousand or even hundred that actually continue to use Blender in a way that they would be interested in any DAZ content.
I have no idea how many users of blenders, sorry, Blender there are, but lets just say it's not 400.000 new Blender users every month, it is much much less then that.
Ee by gum, lads... job well done!
Many many thanks 
x SileneUK
That's fine, but I hope you don't miss the point for the details....
The comparison to Carrara is what's pertinent here don't you think? 4 million downloads of Blender in the last year WITHOUT the easy use of any of the cool DAZ/Poser content (note I said EASY). Now imagine if the entire library of existing and new DAZ/Poser content was drag-n-drop easy to a 4 million download market. How many people who downloaded would suddenly find it fun to use, and become regular content customers?
The same argument you proposed applies to Carrara too. Sure they have to pay a fairly nominal fee for it, but how many Carrara users stick with it.
The point we're trying to make is a simple one.... 4 million, or actually far more (Blender has been around for 20 years) prospective users who might be enticed to pick up their free copy of Blender if they got an add showing all this cool content that Carrara users find so enticing. Versus FAR less prospective Carrara users.
Where do you focus your resources? Personally, I'd look to the whole world of 3D app users out there if I wanted the biggest market possible for my content. That includes Blender and Maya and 3DS and Lightwave and all the others. How significant a player is Carrara in that huge market? You tell me.
Joe - this is precisely why it makes sense to ask for a modest development of Carrara to accommodate G3F, rather than asking for the world. I believe that DAZ is capable of looking after its existing customers, including Carrara, as well as seeking these new markets. Sure if it will take a huge development effort then it is probably not going to happen, but I do not believe that is the case.
Sure, I figure there's maybe a 70-30 chance DAZ will do G3 for Carrara. Of course that depends on how much effort it would take, the state of the Carrara code and how easy it would be to integrate, etc., which I have no clue about. As I recall the 8.5 beta with G2 took forever, like over a year. So Does that mean G3 will be as difficult or more difficult? I have no clue.
But assuming it's a reasonable effort, yeah it's probably low hanging fruit, espcially considering what it would take for its developers to figure out all the code from scratch for these other apps. But I don't know if anyone here has a clue about the G3/Carrara implementation cost. I sure don't. And that's the big question. I'd sure be interested if anyone has any insights into real info on that. I've heard many mentions of "modest development" for G3, but I'm not sure where that came from. Is that really the case?
But once again, as I've said many times, it's basic cost benefit, where best to invest your resources for maximum bang for the buck.
By the way, I'm sure a posse is heading my way to correct me about the G2/Carrara difficulties, but my memory was that the G2 implementation took a long time. But I never used G2 and never really cared, so my memory could be totally off base on that. Was that the case or am I wrong?
Thinking back a good while to before Genesis 1 saw the light of day and we were testing what was known as Project X, which became Genesis ...isn't this where Daz has been headed all along? To get a figure good enough to be acceptable universally, by professional studios, with a universal format. Do that and they will not need to further develop Carrara especially for G3 compatability!
As it is, all that they need to do to get G3 working in C8.1 is get Collada working correctly, without exporting an armature for each piece of clothing. They already have a "merge skeletons" option in Studio - only it doesn't work.
Although I intended to just link, I can't resist another jargon laden introduction to the world of bean counters. The investor mantra is "Leave no profit behind!" Grab all of the profit. Grab the big profits. Grab the small profits. Grab the profits to be had by serving rich people. Grab the profits to be had by serving poor people. Grab the profits to be had by serving cities. Grab the profits to be had by serving rural areas. Grab the profits to be had by serving the young. Grab the profts to be had by serving the old. Get it all. Leave no profit behind! Profit - yum, yum. If profits are scattered in various piles, then to maximize profits, grab it ALL, not just the biggest distinct pile. Take all the piles.
Why do I say that? That is obvious, right? No one is disagreeing with that, right?
Well, it is being argued that business resources should only be devoted to the biggest pool of buyers, and this precludes funding for smaller pools. Once again, business projects are NOT mutually exclusive. If the marginal revenue from serving the smaller pool is greater than the marginal cost of raising funds then it is profitable to serve the smaller pool - even if serving the larger pool is also profitable. To see this, consider airline service. The city of San Antonio has about 1.4 million people and is growing about 8% per year. Phoenix has about 1,5 million and is growing about 6% per year. In contrast to big growing cities like San Antonio and Phoenix, the city of Birmingham (Alabama) only has about 200,000 people and is not growing at all. West Palm Beach has about 100,000 people and is growing at about 4% per year. So, by the logic being advanced in this thread, airlines should not serve Birmingham and West Palm Beach, but instead should shift all the planes to San Antonio and Phoenix, right? No. Serving a route to West Palm Beach gets funded if the marginal cost of serving that route generates more money than it costs to raise money. The comparison is to the cost to raise money, not the relative population of West Palm Beach compared to Phoenix. We observe that Birmngham and West Palm Beach both get airports and have plane service despite not being as big and not growing as fast as San Antonio and Phoenix. And, West Palm Beach and Biringham both get plane service despite the fact that only one of them has a population with very high disposable income to spend on flights. Furthermore, there are small airlines that provide charter service, and big airlines that povide scheduled service. Profitable things get funded even if other things are also profitable.
The same logic applies to why there are multiple models of cars (sports cars, sedans, minivans), instead of only making cars for the largest subpopulaiton of car buyers. See the strategy of Billy Durant (General Motors) vs Ford (Henry Ford). "Durant got his way, and the new GM was the opposite of Ford: Instead of just making one car, like the Model T, it produced a wide variety of cars for a wide variety of buyers. In its first two years, GM cobbled together 30 companies, including 11 automakers like Oldsmobile, Cadillac, and Oakland (which later became Pontiac), some supplier firms, and even an electric company."
So, devote resources to try to sell models to Blender users? Sure, evaluate that decision by comparing the funding cost (cost of raising the money) of developing the file format to the likely marginal revenues.
Devote resources to 3D printing? Sure, evaluate that by comparing the funding cost (cost of raising the money) of developing that technology to the likely marginal revenues.
(Note - there might be spillovers, see prior posts)
But, businesses specialize and have to make internal decisions. Yes, management is hard.
Depending on how Daz is set up internally, is the vice president for 3D printing arguing in big meetings that the budget currently being given to the vice president for Blender be diverted to 3D printing? Most likely. But at the top level, a business firm has the ability to raise additional funds through debt and equity markets. Daz can expand and try to pursue both 3D printing and Blender formats if Daz management believes both are profitable. To expand, Daz does not have to convince all tech investors, or even a majority of tech investors, just some investors. And investors generally like to see financial statements that report measures that are based upon marginal decisionmaking.
So, the decision is marginal revenue and marginal cost, because if a project is profitable, some investor out there wants that profit. If the marginal cost of serving West Palm Beach is less than the marginal revenues, some investor wants to serve West Palm even if Phoenix s also profitable. Leave no profit behind.
RE: making mistakes. Hell ya, businesses make mistakes. Billy Durant eventually went bankrupt.
How does this apply to funding Carrara? It is a marginal revenue and marginal cost decision, with the cost being calculated as the cost of raising funds in debt and equity markets (including retaned earnings), not whether other projects are also profitable. And at the margin, Daz could give Carrara a slight improvment without giving it a complete overhaul. Again, decide at the margin.
Do I believe that this analysis proves Carrara is worth funding? No, No data has been provided, so I am agnostic. The thread was intended to generate some of the relevant data.
But I do note that Openoffice has not yet replaced Microsoft Word/Excel, and Linux has not yet replaced Windows. A free platform and a pay platform can exist simultaneously, because, well, they do.
Thanks PhilW for sending the letter on behalf of all of us.
one advantage that carrara has over bryce and hexagon for further development is the fact that it has already been brought up to 64 Bit. This was a big step.
THis is an except from a Bryce Post back in March Where they are haing a discussion about the future of Bryce.
http://www.daz3d.com/forums/discussion/53355/is-bryce-dead-or-alive#latest.
@Scott-Livingston - thank you for bringing this to our attention.
5: There is no question that DAZ Studio is our main focus. We still have plans for some of our other titles as well but you will see Studio continue to advance and incorporate more functionality as time goes on.
13: (Will there be a Hexagon update in the future?) Likely not ...
15: (Landscape/rock/tree generator inside of DAZ?) It's on the roadmap ...
So it's open to any interpretation and rumor.
So time will tell what happens but by PhilW sending the message it shows a little bit about the community of Carrara users. Carrara unlike Bryce and Hexagon has never been given away for free. Although some of the sales lately with it down to $65 if you are a platnum memberin my books is like giving it away.
chickenman said
Picture Chohole rolling on the floor in fits of laughter and splutterin incoherently about exaggeration being taken as gospel
I achieved my goal of giving some comic relief from the discussions then.
Thanks for that info, Chickenman. In addition to the Q&A that you suggested, I really enjoyed reading through some of the other interviews. I especially liked the interview with Matt Allgood on page 49. The feature is called "Favorite Five: Five Runtime Must Haves" The figures/content on this person's list included V4, A3, and the V4 Ranger. I might start another thread on the favorite 5 among Carrara users, and I wonder how many of the Fav 5 would be Carrara-specific like Ringo's and PhilW's hair props, and how many would be figures/props labeled for use with Poser/Studio.
It might be a good idea to have a Fav 5 article of 5 products NOT made for Carrara that look great in Carrara.
Great idea, Fixmypcmike. That would also be a justification for putting it in the Carrara forum because I was tempted to just start a more general Fav 5 thread in the commons. Now to think of my own Fav 5 so I can post the first item in the thread.
go go for it, great idea :)
Diomede, thank you for that detailed discussion. And I am trying to extract the main point you're trying to make.
I *think* what you (and others) seem to be saying is "DAZ should throw some money into Carrara to make some incremental improvements, because Carrara users provide revenue to DAZ".
If that is your point, please consider this:
Now, I can go on, but the point is simple. Why would any company invest in a product that has no future whatsoever, and at best has only a relatively small, and shrinking, revenue potential from existing users? Especially if the existing user base is shrinking rapidly.
The answer, I suspect is this: DAZ will only invest in Carrara IF the investment is small enough and can result in an acceptable return (via projected content sales to existing customers) compared to what the same investment will generate if directed to a different investment.
Now, you seem to think that all DAZ has to do is get more money from investors. And DAZ will tell investors that they will use the money to invest in a product that is, by any account, dead, and not even marketed by DAZ? Good luck.
Now maybe you're right and investors and management will be glad to put their resources into something that is on life support, and has no future. Personally, I think that when Carrara ceases to provide enough content revenue it will be scrapped. With, as they say, extreme prejudice. Maybe I'm wrong, time will tell. But time has told that same story in the last 5 years.
And BTW, before anyone gets upset at me for saying this, please consider this: what I have posted is either factual or obvious, based on past history and what we all know. And it was DAZ, not me, who decided to go this way. DAZ stopped development, DAZ chose to sideline Carrara. Personally, I think it was probably a good decision for DAZ's future, but for Carrara users like me it's unfortunate.
So don't blame the messenger. Cuz in this case the messenger is DAZ.
Joe, I'm not arguing with most of what you say, but just to pick up on one point, which is why people would buy it when "it has none of the cool features users want". Actually it is packed with many cool features which are not available in DAZ Studio or Poser. I think most Carrara users started out as DS or Poser users and wanted features that are not in those applications, and turned to Carrara as it offers compatibility with their library of content, while offering modelling, dynamic hair, replication, landscape tools, trees etc. Yes there are other 3D programs which offer other things, like the fluid dynamics in Blender to name just one, but that does NOT have the ability to natively use Poser and DS content, which makes Carrara so attractive. Maybe one day, Blender and other will be able to use DAZ content natively, or maybe DS will be developed to the point where it covers pretty much all of the features that Carrara offers and which it currently lacks. But that could also take many years, and until that time, Carrara will have a place in the market.
Phil, I never said Carrara has no benefits. It has benefits. But most of the list you gave ARE available, for free, in apps like Blender.
Modelling is in Blender. Dynamic hair is in Blender. Replication is in Blender. Some absolutely gorgeous trees and grass and other plants are available for a nominal fee as separate content, and some very nice trees and grass are free. Landscaping can easily be done, but I'm not sure if there's a drag-n-drop solution.
This is NOT a "pro-Blender" rant. It is the facts that DAZ management and investors are keenly aware of. If you're a Carrara evangelist at DAZ, and you approach management and investors in a meeting, they'll say "My kid downloaded Blender, and here's the list of cool features he got for free. And you want to sell Carrara? What does it have the others don't?"
And your only answer will be "Well, it handles most content natively, with all the morphs and stuff"
And their response: "DAZ Studio does that too"
And your response?
Joe - This is what I said.
"Do I believe that this analysis proves Carrara is worth funding? No, No data has been provided, so I am agnostic. The thread was intended to generate some of the relevant data."
According to you, this is what you heard.
" I *think* what you (and others) seem to be saying is "DAZ should throw some money into Carrara to make some incremental improvements, because Carrara users provide revenue to DAZ"."
I can only point you once again to what I actually said, which was definitely NOT that Daz should or should not "throw money into Carrara."
Around page 5 of the thread, there was an attempt to do a back-of-the-envelope analysis of the costs and benefits related to Daz making decisions regarding Carrara. At that point I made a short and simple post that said
"The profit maximizing question is, "if Carrara got some additional developer time, would it keep enough people, and attract some more, in the Daz store to pay for that developer time." Maybe, maybe not."
I was then told that I was wrong and that no business makes decisions that way. Well, I certainly might be wrong because I often am. But what I have been saying, and linking to, is basic corporate finance. Again, it might be the wrong thing to do, but lots of businesses make decisions that way.
But what I have NOT said in this thread at any point is that I believed Daz SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT THROW MORE MONEY AT CARRARA. If that is what you keep hearing, then there is a problem with your hearing.
What I have said, and what I stand by, is that the bean counters of corporate finance look at marginal measures on a project by project basis, like return on investment, internal rate of return, etc., and then adjust for spillovers, synergies, etc. That could result in Daz abandoning Carrara, or putting more moneyinto Carrara, or selling Carrara, or....
How does that work out for Carrara? I don't know, it is whatever the data says. I have admitted I don't have the data. The data that Headwax is trying to report in this thread is a biased (in a statistical sense) survey of one piece of the data needed to do the calculations.
No emotion. No sentimentality. All of you computer artists, sorry to say, are just numbers in the financial data world.
So - Joe - one more time. No, do not project upon me some conclusory statement about the cost-benefits calculation of Carrara development that I have not said, some emotional plea for the Carrara community that I have not expressed, or any ad hominum argment that I have not made.
This is what I said.
"Do I believe that this analysis proves Carrara is worth funding? No, No data has been provided, so I am agnostic. The thread was intended to generate some of the relevant data."
But I will say this. Several times in this thread you have attempted back of the envelope calculations, witha baseline determined by adding a suite of features t Carrara. OK, fine. I initially said "interesting, but not definitive" I attempted to explain an improvement to the method of the back of the envelope calculation that would be more consistent with principles of economics and corporate finance - which are based on margnal decisionmaking (small changes), and I laid out 4 specific factors to consider. At that point, the conversation could have discussed the merits or lack thereof of my suggestion. Instead, you made a personal statement about my intelligence and called out Headwax personally. Several times thereafter you repeated your back of the envelope calculation, which left me somewhat bemused so all I could do was repeat the princples of corporate finance with the occasional link to economics andinvestment educational sites.
Just in case it isn't clear, I am agnostic as to whether the likely marginal revenues from additional Carrara improvements are greater than the marginal costs. The data works out however it works out. But I will say, and support with appropriate links to financial websites, that the data that Headwax asked to be reported in this thread is relevant to the calculcation, and not available merely from store data on Carrara ownership, sales of Poser/Studio content, and sales of Carrara-only content.
As an example of the stuff you can do with Blender, and I'm sure DAZ management is keenly aware of the competition, is stuff like this. This image was borrowed from the wonderful work of blenderguru. He also provides some stunning vegetation models
Oh wait, I'll help you out with a response Phil...
Carrara evangelist: "Well, we got an email from 60 Carrara users asking us to make G3 compatible"
Their response: "Um, in the time it took you to say "Carrara", 1,000 people downloaded Blender."
but only 1 will use it !
Here are examples of what can be done in Maya.
http://area.autodesk.com/products/gallery/maya
Here are some features of 3D Studio Max
http://www.autodesk.com/products/3ds-max/features/all/gallery-view