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Like I said, I'm a simple guy. Can you address the specific points I raised, specifcally, rather than generalizations of income statements and "similar service"?
I'm trying to make my discussion very clear, with simple numbers and logic. References to "cold hearted profit maximization" and "income sheets" don't address the simple question I raised.
Is it possible to show me the equation you think DAZ might use to convert the data provided to something they can use to decide the basic issue?
Thanks for any help you can provide.
I've addressed them many times.
I apologize if I missed it. I've been following this thread pretty closely.
In any case, the only question I have is "how does DAZ convert '70 users with a total of 3,000 pages of products' to usable information?
I suggested that the thought process they might have to make to convert that to usable data is:
“Well if 70 users have 3,000 pages of products, then the total active Carrara user base has spent something like Y dollars in recent years and will likely continue spending at that rate if we invest in Carrara development”.
I'm pretty sure nobody has addressed that so far. Was my supposition incorrect?
Thanks again.
Total profit equals Total Revenues minus Total Costs
To maximize profit, take the first derivative of total profit and find where it is at an extreme (slope equals zero).
So marginal profit equals marginal revenue minus marginal cost.
Maximum is where marginal profit equals zero.
0 = MR - MC
therefore
MR = MC
The survey that Headwax initiated is biased (in a statistical sense). I have said that many times. Therefore, it is only part of the information that Daz needs. I have said that many times. However, it is a component of Marginal Revenue, and thus a necessary part of an accurate profit maximizing decision by Daz. Stated another way, absent this information, Daz will not have all of the information necessary to make an accurate profit maximizing decision. But having the survey is not a sufficient condition to having all of the necessary information. Perhaps the survey will spur them to seek more information, but unfortunately they should only seek more information until the marginal revenue from more infomation equals the marginal cost of more information - and more information is not free. But Headwax's survey is free to Daz, so there you go. In summation, the survey provides some necessay but not sufficient information for an accurate profit maximizing decision.
Maybe you disagree that Carrara user purchases of Daz products labeled for Poser and Studio are a part of marginal revenue, but several people in this thread have reported that they do not plan to renew their platinum club membership because Daz has not provided Carrara support for a product labeled for Studio use (not even Poser).. That is a change in revenues, thus affects marginal revenue. The implication is also that Daz will lose potential sales related to the presumably soon to arrive Michael genesis 3. That affects marginal revenue.
According to business professionals (linked to several times), profit decisions are made at the margin. Profit decisions are made by comparing revenues to the costs of funds, which has also been repeated many times. The survey is a component of revenues.
Not sure if you're joking, or maybe it's my thick skull that just can't catch up.
You have a group of 70 respondents, out of an totally unknown number of total active users. How do you have any confidence level in anything statistic-wise?
Ahh, okay. Thanks Diomede. At least I know I'm not losing my mind. Seems you agree that this survey doesn't provide sufficient info for DAZ to make any useful conclusions. And that's been my point all along.
Hi, out of interest I decided to do a trial run down on the results - it's a bit complicated, but it might explain to some who cant understand the logic of the poll or say the results are meaningless.
Before our data collection survey Daz knew this:
However, Daz did not know the answers to one of the questions posed at the beginning of this thread:
Paraphrased, that question was:
1) how much money was spent by people who were primarily Carrara users.
Initial results of the survey
Simple statistics tell us:
If the sample size is approximately 70 then, given a confidence level of 95 percent, that gives us a confidence interval of around 12.
What does this mean? :)
To explain: A confidence level of 12, means that, regardless of knowing the total population of users who buy content soley for use in Carrara, Daz can
look at the content figures here and extrapolate that, for every Carrara user, their content numbers/pages will be between plus and minus 12 percent
of the average amount of content/number pages revealed in this survey.
That means that Daz can use those figures to detemine, within a 24 percent margin, how much the Carrara users who have not contributed to this thread have spent.
Variables that are irrelevant here are:
1) the number of Blender downloads per minute - as this will not effect the historical data we are giving Daz.
Variables that Daz knows that we don't.
1) Numbers of Carrara software purchased.
2) Numbers of people downloading updates.
Variables no one knows.
1) Number of users using free Carrara software (obtained from dvd on mag) or pirated Carrara software - still relevant if they buy items to use in Carrara from Daz.
Initial Conclusions
Course of Action
Daz can use the statistics here to extrapolate historical data within a plus and minus 12 percent error with a 95 percent certainty - and so use those figures to project
future sales losses they will incur by no longer supporting Carrara.
To put that in concrete terms, if the average Carrara user who answered the survey were to spend (For Example) $2000 a year over a 5 year period,
then the data we have given Daz with this survey allows Daz to calculate (with a 95 percent certainty) that the average Carrara user would be spending between
$8,800 and $11200 every 5 years.
Apologioes for the length of this post but it occurred to me that some might not be able to understand how the results of this survey might be used ;)
RE: Ahh, okay. Thanks Diomede. At least I know I'm not losing my mind. Seems you agree that this survey doesn't provide sufficient info for DAZ to make any useful conclusions. And that's been my point all along.
No, Joe. That has not been your point all along. Your point all along is that you somehow know that because Blender is free, Daz should not update Carrara in any way and will not update Carrara in any way because if Blender is free then updating Carrara requires a whole suite and no one would use Carrara anyway. If you want, I will quote you back your posts.
It has been my point all along that I don't know how the data works out, but that you keep promulgating the wrong formula to compute profit maximization. I have merely tried to link to and explain the formula and approach that the financial bean counters use to calculate profit, which is not the formula that has been put forward several times by you in this thread. Along the way, I have repeatedly said that the data from the survey would not be unbiased (in a statistical sense) and that I don't know how the ultimate calculation would work out.
But I have also said, and I stand by, that the information from the survey would be an improvement over not having the information from the survey because store data misallocates Poser and Studio content sales if they are pruchased by non-studio users such as Bryce users or Carrara users or Poser users. For example, I own Bryce, Carrara, Poser, and Studio. I have posted in the foums for all four (plus other daz forums). If I purchase a set of furniture props tomorrow that are labeled for use in Studio and Poser, does that count as a Carrara purchase or not? Store data can't distinguish. Forum postings can't distinguish. They don't know. If they assign it to Carrara because I own Carrara, they will overestimate Carrara-based sales. On the other hand if they say that Carrara purchases are only products that work only in Carrara such as dynamic hair products, they will underestimate Carrara purchases.
So, I agree that Headwax's survey is biased (in a statistical sense) and in other ways imperfect. But, (1) it is an improvement over no survey at all, and (2) might spur Daz to try to collect the necessary information in a less biased way.
Given that having forum participants answer voluntarily is low cost, why not collect it and report it? Why the opposition?
EDIT - I posted this before I saw Headwax's post above mine.
Wow, Headwax, thanks for that detailed summary. And true to form, my tiny brain can't figure out the logic of what you're saying.
You seem to be saying you somehow arrived at a confidence level in something of 95%, though I'm not sure what that "something" is. And apparently that tells you that with 70 users professing a total of 3,000 pages (ie, 120,000 products), DAZ can be confident that the average Carrara user has 120,000/70, or 1714 products in their library, with a + or - 24 percent margin. Is that what you're saying?
Because honestly that doesn't make any sense to me. How can you have any confidence that a sample of 70 users out of an completely unknown total user base is representative in any way whatsoever?
And the point of this thread was that DAZ doesn't know what the total Carrara user base is, correct? Isn't that why you started the thread? You say DAZ now knows from your data that the average Carrara user has 1714 items in their library, but they still have no idea what that means in terms that I described. And somehow they can determine what potential revenue is possible from Carrara users?
Sorry, I just don't get it.
This thread reach its useful purpose right after Phil posted the message that he received from DAZ3D. Now we are 6 pages after his post of just pure debates that are just going in circles.
'
It's called "nailing jelly to a tree"
Yeah, I think we're about done with this one.
(Universal) RIGGED FIGURE is not just the center of the Daz3D universe and business model.
Modeling and Rigging and Animation and Shading of biped/ quadrupeds = advanced pro CG and gaming staple.
There's no way to get around it - I love world sims and open world games and trees and architecture and stuff but eventually most people want animate-able people and animals in the sim worlds.
Rigged Figures with Reusable PRESET WEARABLES have always been in demand. That is why even the loudest Blender advocates are still very busy and vocal here in Carrara space. Very cute outrage lol. But I understand. I hate convertion hell and import export tedium too with a passion.
The verdict is not out yet if Daz3D figures will corner the all-important standardized Figure + Presets market.
Keywords for market dominance:
1. figure cross-platform compatibility
2. user-friendliness (The Sims like, easy inter-app porting a.k.a. APPLINKING, clean conscise official documentation)
3. figure platform popularity (free, easy entry, fast-growing ecology, vendors-supportive, artist-friendly, SHOWCASES & LEGACY COMMUNITY VIBRANCY = FREE CORE-USER TUTORIALS)
Genesis 3 could well be the same thing as Morph3D Darwin platform, and an attempt at GAME-READY ANIMATION-FRIENDLY figure market cornering.
The Android, no pun intended, from which content store ecology spawn. This time the focus is likely "lightweight", "unfussy", "high app2app convertibility" and "game and animation-friendly"
Daz Studio or Carrara, just stills/animation showcases of the all-important Universal Rigged Figure Standard.
IMO, developmental energy is overly concentrated on one of the showcases, not based on scientific stats collection but guestimations.
Fact: today there're still more useful Carrara tips on YouTube then Daz Studio tips. Since I migrated here from DS, I found 10X more lucid and knowledgeable volunteer communicty guides.
Even if UE4 devs got all excited over Darwin/Genesis3, there is still need for native showcase of Genesis 1/2/3 animation-readiness and convertibility.
There is still need to support core users to support the new platform. That's what I'm sayin'.
Carrara 10 already.
You might be right, thanks Ringo and diomede and everyone who posted useful information ;)
I'll drink to that :)
As has been noted previously (on page 10), the discussions of whether this tactic is useful or provides actionable data are simply being repeated. There is no need to continue rehashing it.
I do not know if this thread is “dead” or not, but if it is not…
I am an accounting/finance professional and have been so for almost 40 years.
For the majority of that time I have been a consultant involved with a variety of companies of varying sizes in various industries.
While projections and “back of the envelope” estimates can be entertaining and informative I always want all of the hard data available so I can competently complete my analysis before I render my opinions and recommendations.
One of the many things lacking in this discussion thus far has been any sales numbers for products that are designed solely for Carrara or that have a Carrara version.
I think that it would be interesting to know how many units of these products have been sold by PhilW, Ringo Monfort and Dartanbeck (I list these three as they have participated in this thread) and others.
I would also think it would informative to know how these content producers view their Carrara endeavors. Are they a labor of love, a side endeavor or something they view as a way to make a living? I am not suggesting anyone provide any personal or proprietary information – just the number of units sold.
I also wonder how a company like DCG views its Carrara related endeavors.
Otoy is also of interest to me. Presumably there were some direct costs associated with the development of the Octane renderer plug-in for Carrara. Even if they did not include any indirect costs and overhead absorption in the development costs for the plug-in there still had to be some analysis of what the break-even point would be in regards to the required number of units to be sold at what average price. What did they anticipate the market to be for this product? How close are they to realizing their sales goals for this product? Did they feel that they could get a reasonable return on their investment solely in the initial sales of the plug-in or did they anticipate additional sales of plug-ins for other software platforms to these same purchasers who move on from Carrara or use Carrara as well as other software as part of their toolbox?
There are so many factors that need to be considered for any meaningful analysis. For example how many people have purchased a Carrara upgrade beyond version 7, and how many sales units of Carrara 8 and 8.5 have been sold to first time buyers? What features need to be introduced to the next version of Carrara to entice people to purchase an upgrade or be a first time (new) purchaser.
I feel relatively secure in concluding that most, if not all, Carrara users are NOT going to purchase DAZ products that do NOT work in Carrara.
Of course DAZ could easily end all of this speculation by addressing the issue directly. DAZ could communicate their estimate of what it would cost to develop Carrara into a meaningful product and how many units (both upgrades and new) they would need to sell to recoup their investment. Possible they feel, based upon past sales and projections that it is just not a feasible endeavor to further develop Carrara. The fact is DAZ has never been forthcoming about any of this (they are certainly entitled) and they have never shown any inclination to be accountable for anything they do. Seriously how much of their resources would they have to invest to inform their customer base that they are aware of the fact that they have missed their stated release date of Carrara 9 by a country mile and their new anticipated release date is now XX/XX/XX? I can confidently guarantee that it would take far less of an investment to issue a blurb like this than the amount of time and money they expended in the new forum software and resulting fallout from same.
Since I have already prattled on this far I did want to mention that I did not take the use of the term “bean counters” – which is generally considered to be a derogatory term -personally. After all almost everyone is a “bean counter” in some form or another when it comes to making personal financial decisions.
And “bean counting” is really just a way to keep score. I do not think that there are a great deal of people that would be willing to spend money to attend a professional sporting event if they knew that no one would be keeping score, thus resulting in no winner or loser in such a contest.
Kakman, that was very interesting, thank you. And certainly not prattling. !
Thought I would add an additional data point which is this: $5,931.22
That's how much I've spent at Daz on content over the past several years (the vast majority of my spending was in the last 3 years, when I started to get comfortable with using and playing with Carrara).
And I tend to buy 'on the cheap' whenever possible. (I've also spent more than double this on content at Rendo and other places, as I find other sites easier to buy from - due to not having annoying and incomprehensible 'sales', which might be a data point that Daz has the potential of earning more of my business and hobby spending). So:
1) 39 pages in my Daz product library.
2) Carrara is my primary software (I hate Studio and won't use it except in circumstances where I absolutely have to).
3) Yes I would consider purchasing Genesis3 content, but not if it won't work in Carrara.
4) I've shelled out $5,931.22 at the Daz store alone, and much more than that on content from elsewhere.
5) I will be cancelling my platinum club as I have no confidence that Daz wants to retain me as a customer.
(Seriously, I got a little sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when I started totaling up how much content I've purchased for this little hobby...)
yes, it's scary the amount of money most of us have spent, I keep my credit card statements away from my wife - well I used to anyways, when I spent up big with daz
I'm over double of that. I wish I had never totaled my orders.
ncamp
Thank you very much. Believe or not I attempted to keep it as succinct as possible. I had visions of people's eyes rolling up into their heads.
One thing that I forgot to add:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Jonstark, as always, I was very happy to see you post here and read your post with great interest.
As with your other posts this one was spot-on, direct, thoughtful and without any hint of emotionalism.
My numbers are very similar. $5,445.80 spent over the last several years with the bulk of it the last 2 or 3 years.
I have purchased quite a bit of content from other stores as well.
I have spent little or nothing at the DAZ store since the introduction of G3.
Carrara is my primary 3D software and I detest Studio and only use it as a last resort plug-in.
I will not be renewing my Platinum Club subscription either.
Joe, this is 100% wrong. Everyone who posted data was logged in under thier account. Each account is tied directly to the users purchase history. With access to that data I could write an SQL query in 3 minutes that would break down the totals of these users by year, month, purchase frequency, average revenue by time period and a bunch of other juicy statistics. In fact they could do the same for all the users who have posted in the Carrara forum. They have the data.
I see what you're saying. IF they go into this forum and sort thru each post where someone reported their numbers, and backtrack to that user's account data, then they would be able to extract any info they need. Good point.
Personally I'd be surprised if they go to that effort, but you raise a good point. Thanks for the enlightenment.
Leaving aside the detailed numbers, I think this exercise has done two things:
- it has proven that Carrara users buy lots of content. I think DAZ probably knew this anyway, but it does no harm to remind them.
- it demonstrates the passion that users have for Carrara.
One of the principles of good business is to look after your existing customers with existing products, before trying to sell new products to your existing customers, and your existing products to new customers. I think DAZ recognises the Carrara community and would like to support it if it is economic to do so. I think the likihood of getting further developments such as Genesis 3 support has very little to do with the actual figures which have been discussed, and everything to do with the likely cost of the development. If it is a quick and simple fix, DAZ will do it - they may be working on it right now, but they won't pre-announce it until it is ready for fear of dashing expectations. If it would require a significant rewrite of Carrara, it most likely won't happen, however much the Carrara community and DAZ themselves may want this. Time will tell which scenario we are in, although I think in the light of DAZ's response, I would personally be surprised if we do not see Genesis 3 integration at some stage.
All too often!
But in this case it is the new DAZ figure for which everybody wants Cowrarra compatibility.
DAZ spells it wrong a lot, which causes others to spell it wrong.
I think they listened to too much Peter Gabriel in the 1970's and put in the name of his old band by mistake.
RE: use of the term "bean counter." Sorry, Kakman. No offense intended. Similar apology for use of the term "cold hearted." Just trying to counter the assertion that self reporting preferred software along with pages of Daz purchases was only an emotional plea. mea culpa. Not that it excuses, but I was including myself among the counters of beans.
Something I remember from my days in bachelor in Marketing:
(the Pi squared is just there to make it sound more scientific
can be aproximated by a 10 to 1 ratio 
)
We often see that basic overlooked.
That's pretty close but it would be way easier than that. It would look something like this (very simplified database query):
SELECT userID from FORUMS WHERE discussion_thread = 58113
JOIN with ORDERS
WHERE ORDER.userID = FORUM.userID
This would list every order ever placed by everyone who has posted in this thread. All of those orders will have an order date and order total which can be grouped, summed, sorted, sliced and diced every which way you can imagine. Most big companies do this kind of analysis but to your point, they'll only look for the data they're interested in looking at.
It tends to be (or perceived as) more exciting to enter new markets, to boldy go etc, but yes, serving your existing customers and therefore keeping them, should be a number one priority for any business.